The world is on the brink of a climate-driven upheaval, and the next two decades will be a rollercoaster of geopolitical shifts and power struggles. But how did we get here? Let's delve into the story of Arthur Snell, a former diplomat turned author, who has witnessed the world's fragility firsthand.
A Diplomat's Brush with Mortality:
Imagine a seasoned diplomat, Arthur Snell, who has navigated the war-torn landscapes of Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen, only to find himself face-to-face with mortality on a peaceful holiday in the Swiss Alps. It was here that Snell's personal and professional worlds collided, as he realized that the very mountains he cherished were becoming less stable due to climate change. This epiphany led him to question the geopolitical implications of a warming planet.
The Climate Crisis: A Rising Damp:
Snell's journey culminated in his book, 'Elemental,' which reveals how the climate crisis is exacerbating conflicts and fueling the rise of far-right populism. He likens the crisis to rising damp in a house—invisible yet transforming everything. From drought-stricken Africa to the defrosting Arctic, the world is in flux, and the scramble for resources is intensifying.
A World in Flux:
As superpowers grapple with newfound vulnerabilities, smaller countries find their natural resources, from habitable land to critical minerals, unexpectedly in demand. Take Greenland, for instance, whose newfound attention is both a blessing and a curse. The pace of these power shifts is unprecedented, and Snell argues that it amplifies geopolitical tensions.
Apocalyptic Scenarios and Diplomatic Realities:
Despite discussing apocalyptic scenarios, Snell remains remarkably composed. His diplomatic career, which began after studying history at Oxford, has exposed him to numerous global hotspots. From his time in Helmand, Afghanistan, to his final posting in Trinidad and Tobago, Snell has experienced the realities of diplomacy, including budget cuts and the myth of glamorous living.
The Climate Crisis: A Call to Action:
Snell, neither a climate scientist nor an activist, adopts a pragmatic diplomat's view. He emphasizes that while we may have failed to halt rising temperatures, we must engage with the consequences. This includes not abandoning the net-zero goal, as a four-degree rise would be catastrophic. Snell urges us to reject fatalism, as most people will live through the climate crisis, and we must plan for its impact.
The Looming Food Crisis and Migration:
Snell's book presents chilling statistics about the future challenge of feeding the world's population. He refrains from predicting starvation numbers due to farming's adaptability. However, he warns of intensifying competition for productive land, potentially triggering new forms of mass migration. This migration may not only be from poor to rich countries but also in reverse.
Climate Change Hits Home:
Americans are feeling the heat, with wildfires, hurricanes, and scorching summers. Snell predicts that Americans may need to move north, potentially revitalizing declining cities. But what does this mean for Canada, which Donald Trump has expressed interest in annexing? Snell highlights the opportunities created by the unfreezing north, making food production more viable in parts of Canada as American breadbaskets struggle.
A New Age of Empire:
As the world warms, great powers like the US and China are grabbing resources from smaller nations, reminiscent of a new age of empire. Snell notes that leaders like Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping embrace expansionism, challenging the notion of sovereignty. This new order poses difficult questions for democracies, whose leaders must win elections while making painful sacrifices.
Britain's Place in a Ruthless World:
Assuming Britain avoids the worst-case climate scenario, it may escape the extreme temperatures and wildfires plaguing southern Europe. However, Snell believes Britain's planning is inadequate, with a lack of water reservoir construction and limited access to climate crisis analysis for decision-makers.
A Disillusioned Diplomat:
Snell's political journey is intriguing. He joined the Liberal Democrats while working in Baghdad, disillusioned with the war. Later, he attempted to enter politics after leaving the Foreign Office. Family reasons and disillusionment led him to quit diplomacy, but he remains proud of Britain's support for Ukraine. His first book, 'How Britain Broke the World,' exposed shameful mistakes in the Middle East.
The Illusion of Special Relationships:
Snell's experiences in Iraq and Helmand shattered his illusions about a special relationship with the US. He argues that NATO members can no longer rely on US support in a crisis. Snell is critical of the current government's relationship with Washington, suggesting that public praise for Trump should be accompanied by behind-the-scenes restructuring of defense and security arrangements.
Reasons for Optimism:
Despite the dire situation, Snell's newsletter, 'Not All Doom,' offers a glimmer of hope. He highlights potential solutions, such as solar arrays in African deserts and growing international cooperation over water and renewable energy. Snell believes that the crisis forces collaboration, and few countries deny its existence.
Controversy and Comment:
But here's where it gets controversial. Is Snell's optimism misplaced? Are we truly prepared for the challenges ahead? As the world grapples with the climate crisis, will democracies be able to make the necessary sacrifices while maintaining public support? And what role will the US and China play in this new age of empire? The future is uncertain, and the decisions we make today will shape the world for generations to come. What do you think? Are we on the right path, or is a different approach needed?
